That critical thinking you’re always hearing about…

In the March 26 New York Times, Nicholas Kristof asks:

Ever wonder how financial experts could lead the world over the economic cliff?

One explanation is that so-called experts turn out to be, in many situations, a stunningly poor source of expertise. There’s evidence that what matters in making a sound forecast or decision isn’t so much knowledge or experience as good judgment - or, to be more precise, the way a person’s mind works.

[Philip Tetlock, Berkeley professor, author of Expert Political Judgment, and “expert on experts”] called experts such as [those who’ve led the world over the economic cliff] the “hedgehogs,” after a famous distinction by the late Sir Isaiah Berlin…between hedgehogs and foxes. Hedgehogs tend to have a focused worldview, an ideological leaning, strong convictions; foxes are more cautious, more centrist, more likely to adjust their views, more pragmatic, more prone to self-doubt, more inclined to see complexity and nuance. And it turns out that while foxes don’t give great sound-bites, they are far more likely to get things right.

And now, for the rest of the story...